Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, when Ukraine, among several other satellite states, was being divested in the 1990s to form its own country, Ukraine had the fourth largest nuclear arsenal in the world. It came from the armaments which were abandoned by the Soviets on Ukrainian soil – much like what the U.S. did in Afghanistan just a couple of years ago. Let that fact sink in for a moment.
There was a short moment when Ukraine could have become a nuclear power and could have secured its own destiny. But the West talked the Ukrainians into decommissioning its arsenal and convinced them to become a neutral state. They followed the guidance of the “Atlanticists,” NATO, and have lived to regret it.
Former President Bill Clinton was responsible for this policy of disarmament, and he regrets it, too. The current war has revealed that NATO is no match for Russian military superiority. The only restraint is on the Russian side from a customary caution in military tactics. Russians do not have the boldness of the Germans.
Historically, Russians have fought their wars through attrition. They wear down their enemies. They are doing that now to the West in Ukraine.
In the latest Battle of Bakhmut, the Russians tell us that 20,000 of their soldiers were killed, and 50,000 on the Ukrainian side. America’s casualties during the entire Vietnam War era were officially 58,220.
Clearly, for a country the size of Texas, this is major blood-letting. Rumors are that Ukraine has suffered casualties in excess of 250,000 since the beginning of the war. The Russians? It’s hard to tell, but if the proportion is the same as Bakhmut, then it is reasonable to believe that their losses exceed 100,000 – for a country where the birth-rate is below replacement levels.
Europe has not seen a war like this since World War II. The social and economic costs are only just now beginning to be felt. Every soldier who has died is someone’s son, someone’s father, someone’s husband, brother and so on. The level of grief among the Ukrainians must be astronomical.
Among the Russians? Not so much. Putin hired a mercenary group that was manned by convicts. Troops were supplied by emptying the Gulag. The war has not touched the average Russian, yet. But it will soon.
During World War II, the Soviets plundered the Ukraine and left the people to starve. The Ukrainians were reduced to conditions of cannibalism to survive. When the Germans invaded, they were welcomed as liberators. When Germany lost the war, the Soviets returned to exact further revenge upon the Ukrainian people.
This all happened within living memory. It should not surprise us that the Ukrainians hate the Russians.
It is probably a good thing that Ukraine’s, Russian-speaking provinces have been annexed by Russia. It is difficult to believe that ethnic Russians could ever be accepted by Ukrainians to form a government. But something else has happened: old wounds have been reopened.
With all due respects to analysts such as Martin Armstrong and Paul Craig Roberts, men with whom I have high regard and even admiration, the tragedy of suffering has created a Ukrainian people who deserve a Ukrainian state to protect them from foreign predations.
The grief felt now by the Ukrainian people will soon turn to rage. When a new cadet brigade of Western-trained soldiers take the field in the coming months, we will see a very different and ugly war. Ukraine will suddenly have the best army of Europe – and it will not be a NATO state. The Atlanticists had their chance and blew it.
I fully expect that a Ukrainian general will emerge who will be a patriot and one who will have grown tired of the graft and corruption of the Atlanticists. He will overthrow the current ruling regime of President Zelensky and nationalize Ukrainian industry. Wall Street power brokers will be out. Ukraine will be at war with the West, as well as with Russia.
If he is shrewd, he will call a truce with Russia and expand territorially into the Balkans. This will frighten Turkey. But if he has made an alliance with Poland, then an expansion west will be simple. The Poles do not like the decadent values of the West.
What of the United States? It will be bankrupt and no longer able to bankroll its military. Ostensibly, Ukraine will still be our ally. Logic will demand that Ukraine become a strong buffer state against Russian “expansionism.” And just like the coddling of Hitler by England’s Chamberlain, Ukraine will be allowed its own path of expansion.
Once that has happened, Putin will likely be retired. He will be portrayed as the savior of Russia by Russian historians. With a growing Ukrainian threat, the Communists will regain control of the Kremlin. And the next stage of WWIII will be set.
If you hear of peace talks, truces, deals, and so on – don’t believe it. The die is cast. Ukraine will be at war with the world from here on out. Every pause in fighting will only be a breather to prepare for the next battle.
When will this happen? Measure the timeline in months, not years.
James W. Stivers, June 3, 2023
