A review of AU/ACSC/2015 “Cataclysmic Polarity Shift: Is U.S. National Security Prepared for the Next Geomagnetic Pole Reversal?” by Tyler J. Williams, Captain, USAF, Research Report, Air Command and Staff College, Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama, USA, December, 2015 (71 pages)
From the Abstract
The Earth’s core is undergoing a dramatic change with geomagnetic field strength dropping by 40% over the last 400 years, and satellite observations showing the field weakening ten times faster than previously calculated. These changes are a precursor to a common geological phenomenon known as a geomagnetic polarity reversal, where the north and south magnetic poles of the Earth reverse. Geomagnetic polarity reversals significantly decrease the strength of the magnetic field, thereby considerably increasing the interaction of the solar wind with the Earth’s atmosphere and biosphere.
We already know that war colleges entertain many disaster scenarios in order to prepare “plans” should such hypotheticals materialize. This is done as a matter of course so that “off-the-shelf” tools are available for immediate deployment in an emergency. It does not necessarily mean that the scenarios contemplated are real threats.
However, research papers for military responses to anticipated emergencies must reflect reality. War colleges do not waste their time upon merely metaphysical speculations. Risk assessments must be made.
In the case of Captain Tyler J. Williams’ (USAF) “Research Report” to fulfill his graduation requirements for the Air Command and Staff College of Maxwell Air Force Base, we would make a mistake to suppose that it represents merely a school book report which could be discarded after he received his diploma.
The document was approved for public distribution because it did not contain any classified information which might compromise the military’s readiness . . . but, also, because the threat is real and the U.S. military (as of 2015) is not ready for it [a startling admission].
Upon reading the content, especially the bibliography and end notes sections, we may conclude that he was invited to prepare this report because the disaster scenario he describes is taken seriously by the U.S. military. In fact, as the citations unfold in his presentation, the disaster appears to be certain and imminent: namely, a global polarity shift in Earth’s electromagnetic shielding against solar and cosmic radiation resulting in its collapse in real time – our time. Comparing this outcome with past solar and geomagnetic storms of lesser scale, the results of his analysis warn of a crisis of readiness and the need to “harden” the nation’s infrastructure. He focuses on the vulnerability of satellite technology, the electrical grid, climate, food production and human health.
Because the damage from solar storms can create the same effects as nuclear explosions – and are, in fact, nuclear explosions on the Sun – the preparation for one risk is also preparation for the other.
The value of his report as a fresh scientific source should be appreciated. Prepared in 2015, as noted above, his research could have reflected the science then popularized by Robert Felix (2000), Donald Patten (1990s), and James McCanney (1980s). He does not identify these men as sources, but instead provides others – a fact which is sufficient to demonstrate that modern catastrophism is not the result of an “inbred” family of researchers who quote each other.
We must remember that “Tier 1 Science” is never published, as such, because it is classified for purposes of national security. It represents the ongoing research of the U.S. military which directly impacts its readiness to respond to any disaster scenario which threatens the nation.
Much of Douglas Vogt’s research was gained gleaning from the scientific journals what could be discovered from “reading between the lines” – a process he engaged with dedication for five decades. Frequently, he would call on the authors of these respective articles for “off-the-record” confirmations of his conclusions.
James McCanney is different. He is in his own right, an independent, Tier 1 scientist, who has done his own original research, including the use of scientific instruments for firsthand observations with exact measurements in real time. Much of what he knows, he has not divulged to the public.
What Captain Williams has offered here in support of his thesis is a review of accepted Tier 2 Science.
While he draws supporting evidence from more conventional and “popular” sources – NOAA, NASA, the ESA and the journals (Geophysical, Nature, Royal Academy, etc.) – primary sources used to establish his thesis comes from elsewhere:
For example,
1) Gillian M. Turner’s, North Pole, South Pole (Experiment, Kindle Edition, 2011) (cited at least seven times),
2) Andrew P. Roberts, “Geomagnetic Excursions: Knowns and Unknowns,” (Geophysical Research Letters, 2008),
3) Y. Wei, Z. Pu, Q. Zong, W. Wan, Z. Ren, M. Fraenz and M. Hong, “Oxygen escape from the Earth during geomagnetic reversals: Implications to mass extinction,” (Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2014) (This one is important on atmospheric depletion).
4) Joint Publication 3-14, Space Operations, see bibliography,
et al.
Williams cites the collapse of the Quebec Hydro-Electric plant in 1989 “which failed in 90 seconds after a solar storm ejection event” (p. 15) as illustrative of the problem: the grid is not prepared to handle the sustained induction which would occur from a solar storm of long duration or of one with successive impulses, even weak ones, because the protective shields of the Van Allen Belts are in precipitous decline.
While Williams’ paper says nothing about the notion of a solar nova, it does spend much time on the dangers of solar super-flaring. Readers should appreciate that while a nova event on the scale of Douglas Vogt’s scenario is entirely possible, it has been argued on this website that a sustained solar flash or eruption encompassing no more than 3% of the Sun’s surface would be entirely adequate to produce a nova-level impact should it be directly aimed at Earth.
[Side Note: As of this writing (3/24/24), Ben Davidson reports of a sun-spot cluster group (of the 3% variety) which is currently emitting successive flares (10 so far). While the internal structure does not suggest that these are of the “kill shot” variety or that we are in danger, it does illustrate that we are definitely in a “nova watch” era.]
An ice age as the aftermath of this reversal is not discussed in Williams’ paper, either (cf. Robert Felix). Yet, we know that the paleontological record demonstrates that every ice age is preceded by just such geomagnetic reversals we are witnessing now, resulting in mass extinctions.
While there are many disclaimers in this report and an acknowledgement that geophysical cycles are often not subject to direct scientific observation, nevertheless, inferences from these known factors do elevate the risk level.
The fundamental take aways from this report can be summed up thusly,
1) Devastating solar flaring is an ever present danger,
2) Modern technology is not prepared for it,
3) The weakening Van Allen Belts are amplifying the dangers: meaning that weaker solar storms are having disproportionally greater impact on Earth’s atmospheric defenses,
4) Earth is currently experiencing an epochal geomagnetic pole shift, and
5) It is reasonable to believe that all of the calamities associated with such a pole shift that have occurred in the past will occur again.
In other words, “study this website.”
— JWS, 3/24/24
