The reader must appreciate the fact that “solar nova” science is still in its infancy. Although recent decades have produced leaps in our understanding of the Sun, there is much we simply do not know.
One such aspect of the discussion has to do with the “Carrington Event” which occurred in 1859. It is generally believed that the magnitude and duration of that solar flare would have, were it to occur today, destroyed our electronics and our modern technology upon which it depends. It would have been our “kill shot.”
The ancients did not experience such solar events as catastrophes because they relied upon a primitive technology. The flash was visible and was usually considered an omen, but it did not produce any obvious calamity. We think that big enough flaring can impact the climate, and in recent years, we have discovered that it can be a trigger for belated effects, such as volcanic activity and earthquakes.
Furthermore, from our vantage point of a distance of 93 million miles from the Sun, a solar flash involving a mere 3% of the Sun’s surface, would to us, by the time it propagated that distance, have the appearance and effect of a solar nova. In other words, for the kind of cataclysms described on this website, a solar nova would not even be necessary were a solar storm be precisely aimed at Earth.
But what are the odds for that?
Consequently, skeptical scientists can be forgiven who still disbelieve the hypothesis of a recurring solar nova. Just because we find evidence of solar-caused devastations on the Earth, it does not mean such a disaster was a universal phenomenon experienced all at once in the solar system.
Repetitive certainty is something which is demanded by men of a unique temperament. The mechanistic world view of Newton and the Diehold cycles of Vogt stem from the fact that they are not only natural philosophers, but also mathematicians. Mathematicians have a compulsion for precision and certainty. The reason why scientists are continually surprised to find their calculations inaccurate is because very often a new variable has been introduced into the phenomenon they are studying. The complexity of the universe still mocks us.
That is why I argue for a “1 in 3” chance for a solar nova or “flash” by the year 2046.
Earlier this year, we were treated to a solar storm which was measured to be of the Carrington variety. In fact, it can be argued that it was so great, that it matched the Charlemagne Event. But it happened on the opposite side of the Sun. Our instruments raised the eyebrows of scientists around the world, but the rest of us, noticed not a thing out of the ordinary.
So, were we lucky and did we miss our “kill shot,” an event that will not occur again for another two hundred, or even a thousand, years? Maybe, but we just don’t know.
We are still approaching the peak of the current Gleissberg Cycle. Chances are good that we will get more “kill shots” and one of them might happen to face Earth.
Can we get a “3%” flare? Maybe. For details, read my series on “A Forensic Analysis of Newton’s Notes.” My general feeling is that we will (remember? 1 in 3 chance), but it will be more likely to occur during the peak of another Gleissberg Cycle in the 22nd Century.
And it won’t matter unless someone is around to see it.
– JWS, 10/29/23
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